Why the $2.5 Billion Festival Industry Isn't Dying

And how the smartest festivals are adopting data to adapt.

Last week, our VP of Marketing, Geoff Robins, spoke with the Rolling Stone Culture Council about what’s happening in the festival industry. Geoff is a 20-year veteran of marketing festivals, concerts and events. You can read his full piece here, or get the down low below (with some thoughts and ideas not covered in Rolling Stone).

Let’s get into it.

“For the first time in 11 years, Coachella did not sell out both weekends”
“The Bonnaroo that almost was” 
“Festival culture is dying”
“Glastonbury has a tradition of guitar music, hip hop has no place”

Sound familiar? It should. These are headlines from last week, this year, 2012 and 2008. While it feels more acute post-COVID years, the writing almost always seems on the walls for the festival business. Boom. Bust. Reinvention. Repeat.

In spite of that, 800 Music Festivals are executed annually in the US alone—a staggering number of festivals encompassing a wide array of genres and sizes.

This isn’t the first festival “apocalypse”.

Robins and other industry veterans at Tradable Bits have marketed and played at festivals through multiple “dying years.” We’ve all watched some crash and burn (Fyre Fest). We’ve watched others take sabbaticals and come roaring back to life (Warped Tour). We’ve held out hope for new players (if you live in Western Canada, you know). And, we’ve watched plenty more quietly adapt and thrive while everyone was busy writing their obituaries (Reading and Leeds).

The truth of it is that the industry has always been… well, brutal. 

The business model of festivals is especially vulnerable - sensitive to variable costs, market pressures, environmental pressures (unstable weather), artist availability (and dependability), fan fit through the generations, and so much more. Festivals are constantly walking a fine line. And although 2025 is throwing more volatility their way (especially in North America), that’s just another Tuesday.  

These ebbs and flows may feel chaotic to fans, but it’s become business as usual to the professionals who have always had to adapt and pivot. 

So let’s take a little historical look at how festivals have already shifted over time.

A call back to 2008 and Jay-Z with a guitar

One marketing decision that could have killed Glastonbury. 

It’s 2008. Michael Eavis books Jay-Z to headline. A hip-hop artist. At Glastonbury. Noel Gallagher publicly trashes the move, basically saying that rap doesn’t belong at their sacred rock and guitar-forward festival.

The industry held it’s breath. This was career-ending territory.

Jay-Z’s opening move? He walks onto stage, picks up a guitar and plays “Wonderwall.”

Mic drop.

Looking back, people say it was genius. Or that it was lucky. But from the outside looking in, it was a first step in a new evolution of festival strategy - broader lineups. It was also a lesson that the best festival moments happen when you respect your history while refusing to be trapped by it. 

Jay-Z acknowledged where he was and then showed everyone what “different” could look like. Today, Glastonbury’s lineup includes the likes of Doechii, Charlie XCX and Denzel Curry in addition to artists that fit the original soul of the festival. When faced with changing tastes and powerful tides, the festival pivoted and evolved.

Here’s the thing that lots of folks miss…
That Jay-Z moments gets cited as “genre-bending saves festivals.” That is not always the lesson. The lesson is adaptation.

Yes, most of the multi-day fests existing today have adapted to embrace genre-spanning headliners (to appeal to a larger audience base), but other festivals have adapted by going deeper into their niches. The festivals that die (from “old age”) are the ones that don’t adapt at all.

Survival = Adaptation (Not always expansion) 

Festivals that thrive and will continue to thrive don’t all follow the same path. Some go broader to capture a wider market. Others go niche and double down. What matters is how well a festival understands its moment in the culture and how it meets it. Take Bonnaroo and Newport Folk Festivals as examples

Bonnaroo

The 2025 lineup spanned Olivia Rodrigo to Luke Combs to Tyler, the Creator and Insane Clown Posse. Although weather unfortunately forced its cancellation this year, Luke Combs taking the stage as the first country headliner of the festival showed a dedication to meeting their fans across the generations. 

Bonnaroo has adopted a mindset of a genre-bending popular festival. Some might say that this wide-panning identity is a disaster waiting to happen. Our take? They’re likely making strategic bets based on fan data overlap, culture, and the longevity of their fanbase.

Newport Folk Festival

Going strong since 1959, the Newport Folk Festival has stayed steadfast to its 66-year mission by booking contemporary folk acts alongside legends. Is this a stubborn refusal to evolve? Likely not. Newport Festival has a deep understanding of what their fans actually want. (If you’ve seen A Complete Unknown, you know their fans aren’t very open to change…)

The point of all this is that there is no single playbook. Though we might wish it, we can’t will a one-size-fits-all plan. Success comes from knowing your fans, knowing the market and making smart bets on what they’ll embrace.

The variables that actually matter:

1. Market Fit (not just lineup fit/genre purity)
2. Economic fundamentals (costs, insurance, weather, logistics, booking power)
3. Cultural timing (is your scene having a moment?)
4. Fan data intelligence (the ability to know your fans deeply and adapt)

Adaptations we’re seeing in 2025

So, how are festivals actually adapting? While we can’t speak to booking strategies, we do see some of the broader “behind the scenes” innovations happening at the top level:

1.  Data-driven everything: We don’t have to guess what fans want anymore. From ticketing to merch to pre-sale saves and RFID wristbands, festivals generate first and zero-party data daily. With the right tech stack that data tells you:
   1. Which cities to host in/your hottest travel markets
   2. Artists that are trending with your audience
   3. How fans interact across your grounds and what kinds of experiences they seek.
      
      
   All of this is made possible through more connected technology and ecosystems that are working increasingly harder to talk to each other. 
   
   
2. The Great (and necessary) Democratization: It’s been a rough few years for the average consumer. Payment plans have been emerging as a new standard. Which means that suddenly, the addressable market isn’t just people with $700 - $2000 cash lying around.
   
   
3. Experience Architecture: This isn’t new, but it’s evolving. Festivals aren’t just concerts. They’re curated experiences. VIP packages, brand activations, secret sets, different on-stage formats - all of it laddering into a larger story.
   
   Festivals are getting smarter at becoming full-fledged destinations beyond the music. And while we might picture “Tomorrowland” or some other high-production events as an example, even the way that festivals are niching down and spinning up different on-set experiences represents innovation in experience. Take, for example, this piece written by Jabari from R&B Only Live about why they played around with not announcing artists.

The Bottom Line

A $2.8 billion industry isn’t just going to disappear overnight. From our seat powering hundreds of live events, we see one consistent pattern: the festivals growing can wrangle and connect their data to understand their fans, find their sweet spot in the culture and make hard choices about evolution.

We’re entering another cycle where we’ll have to watch which festivals adapt fast enough to survive.

What’s your take? 

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